Accountability Check: Mets 2012 Top 15 Prospects

New York Mets 2012 Top 15 Prospects (1/3/12)

The Mets offered an interesting challenge when compiling the rankings last year. Any analyst with knowledge of the players could have looked at the system and gone one of three routes, 1) high upside, very raw players, 2) lower ceiling but higher floor players, and 3) some hybrid of the first two. In reviewing last year’s list, I opted for the hybrid, sprinkling in some high-ceiling talents.

This is a bit of a departure from my normal process and in hindsight; I’m a little surprised I opted for this route. Positioning Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey in the top two slots wasn’t difficult and my preference for Wheeler’s high-impact ceiling led me to rank him atop my Mets list. Even with Harvey’s impressive 2012 MLB debut, I’m pleased with my decision and if I were to look back again in a few years, I am confident this would continue to look like the correct ranking.

I stuck true to my tools-loving ways with my rating of Cesar Puello, even though his stock had already begun to slip across the industry. Similar to players like Mike Montgomery and others that I have highlighted recently, I stuck to the positive reports on Puello and needed to take a harder look at the reality of the situation. As I’ve said, this is a lesson I’ve learned in this process and I am being far more critical of my process this time around.

Lower ceiling players like Reese Havens, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Goeddel and Philip Evans filled in much of the back half of the list and there should have been more of an emphasis on raw, high-ceiling players like Luis Mateo, Rafael Montero, Vincente Lupo and Hansel Robles, all of whom broke out to some extent in 2012. I had positive reports on all four players last year but wasn’t willing to push them like I did with Domingo Tapia. It’s not a huge miss, but the departure from my typical high-ceiling ways is a little surprising.

I was overly hard on Wilmer Flores last year. While I don’t think he has a ton of impact potential, he is very likely to contribute in the big leagues and he should have stayed a little higher in a relatively thin system at that time.

Overall, not a bad job putting the 2012 list together but there were some departures from my typical preferences that raised some eyebrows. The consistency displayed through this list was not the best and that is something I hope to remedy this year.

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