Accountability Check: Royals 2012 Top 15 Prospects

Kansas City Royals 2012 Top 15 Prospects (1/11/12)

Even with the graduation of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, the Royals 2012 Top 15 list was still a monster. My analysis of that system had both some hits and misses along the way, but generally, I remain happy with the product I put on the street.

Will Myers at the top of the list was a no-doubter and looks even better after he cemented himself as one of the elite prospects in the game in 2012. Now traded to Tampa Bay, though, Myers won’t be sitting atop my 2013 list.

I had a bout of stubbornness with the number two ranking on last year’s list. I refused to give up on the enigmatic Mike Montgomery. I do that sometimes. I can be stubborn and refuse to give up or even temper myself on some players. It was easy to do that with Myers, as a lefty with very good raw stuff and worlds of potential. There were red flags, and while I didn’t ignore them, I didn’t give them proper weight either. I still believe he can be a quality MLB pitcher, but ranking him second on this list last year was a blatant mistake.

I went overboard on outfielder Elier Hernandez and was very light on right-hander Yordano Ventura. Ventura is the bigger mistake here. I didn’t argue with the tremendous stuff but I did argue with his size and delivery, giving him almost no chance to remain a starter. There are still people within the industry that are skeptical of his future in a big league rotation, but he should have been much higher at this time last year, regardless of those open questions.

I would also like to note that I was a little light on outfielder Jorge Bonifacio and shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. I stand by where I ranked them at the time and only note this because I wish I would have had a little more foresight and pushed them both closer to the top ten.

The rest of the list played out with little fanfare, both positive or negative. The right players were on the list and could have been defended in a variety of very logical orders. I’m comfortable with the overall product and will take note of my stubbornness when considering high-end prospects that are stumbling.

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2 Responses to Accountability Check: Royals 2012 Top 15 Prospects

  1. geoknows says:

    Don’t get too down on yourself about Montgomery, as you were not alone. Baseball America was pretty stubborn about him too, to the extent that they rated him #1 in the Royals system entering 2012, ahead of Myers.

    • Mark A. says:

      You’re right. I wasn’t alone. That said, there is still a lesson there for me as a prospect analyst. I’ve run into the issue before and simply not acknowledged it to this degree. That’s an important part of this adventure for me…openly acknowledging mistakes and trying to improve in front of a bunch of readers.

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